Tehran did not walk away. That’s the most important fact buried inside Iran’s furious condemnation of US military strikes in May 2026 — and it tells you everything about how precarious, and how consequential, this diplomatic moment actually is.
The Trump administration is simultaneously running two contradictory foreign policies toward Iran: one conducted through Special Envoy Steve Witkoff‘s quiet back-channel diplomacy in Oman, and another conducted through airstrikes on Iranian-linked targets. Tehran is playing both games at once too. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei called the strikes a “bad faith” provocation — strong language — yet Iranian negotiators remain at the table. Back in Washington, Trump convened a rare full cabinet meeting to coordinate a government careening between nuclear brinkmanship and a domestic legislative agenda that is quietly falling apart. The stakes, in every direction, are high.
How Eight Years of Maximum Pressure and Broken Promises Brought the US and Iran Back to Oman’s Negotiating Table
The wreckage of American Iran policy is worth cataloguing before understanding where things stand today. Trump withdrew the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018, reimposing sweeping sanctions. The Biden administration spent years attempting to revive the deal, getting agonizingly close in 2022 before talks collapsed. Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, reinstated maximum pressure, and then — in a move that surprised even his own hawks — opened a new negotiating channel through Omani intermediaries.
| Timeline Event | Date | US Position | Iranian Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| JCPOA signed | July 2015 | Accepted enrichment limits | Retained enrichment rights |
| Trump withdraws from JCPOA | May 2018 | Zero enrichment demand | Defiance, accelerated enrichment |
| Iran enrichment reaches 60% | 2021 | Sanctions maintained | Leveraging enrichment as bargaining chip |
| Biden-era revival talks collapse | 2022 | Conditions-based re-entry | Demanded sanctions lifted first |
| Trump 2.0 maximum pressure reinstated | Jan 2025 | Zero enrichment on Iranian soil | Negotiation under pressure |
| Oman-brokered indirect talks begin | Early 2025 | Witkoff leads US side | Araghchi leads Iranian side |
| US strikes on Iranian-linked targets | May 2026 | Military pressure maintained | “Bad faith” — talks continue |
The core sticking point has never changed: uranium enrichment. Iran insists on retaining domestic enrichment capability as a sovereign right. The US demands zero enrichment on Iranian soil — a position so absolute that even some American nuclear experts call it diplomatically unachievable. European allies — France, Germany, and the UK, the so-called “E3” — have quietly urged Washington to ease military pressure to give the diplomatic channel genuine oxygen. Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) and the hawkish Senate flank have demanded the opposite. For a deeper look at how US geopolitical pressure campaigns intersect with Iran policy, see this analysis of US Political Tensions and Geopolitical Conflicts: Surveillance Powers, ICE Funding, and US-Israel-Iran Relations.
Iran Condemns ‘Bad Faith’ Strikes but Stays at the Table — While Trump’s Cabinet Scrambles to Get on the Same Page
Here is the moment we are actually in. US forces — operating with or in coordination with Israeli strikes — hit Iranian-linked targets in May 2026. Baghaei’s “bad faith” language was aimed squarely at domestic Iranian audiences as much as at Washington. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei needed to see condemnation. The Iranian economy, gutted by sanctions, needed the negotiations to continue. Both things happened simultaneously. That is not confusion — it is deliberate.
Across the Atlantic, Trump’s response was to call a full cabinet meeting, a notably rare event in his second administration. He has long preferred bilateral calls and one-on-one sessions with individual secretaries. A formal, full-cabinet convening signals something: multiple crises requiring synchronized messaging, not just presidential instinct.
What the cabinet meeting agenda reportedly covered:
- Iran nuclear diplomacy alignment — ensuring Witkoff’s negotiating posture matches Rubio’s hawkish public statements (they don’t, obviously, and that tension is the whole problem)
- The “Big Beautiful Bill” — Trump’s omnibus domestic legislative package stalling in the Senate, with Republican defections over Medicaid cuts threatening its passage
- Immigration enforcement coordination — Homeland Security’s ongoing operations requiring DOJ and Treasury alignment on funding and legal exposure
- Unified public messaging — cabinet meetings under Trump 2.0 function as loyalty demonstrations as much as policy sessions, often followed immediately by coordinated media appearances
- Texas and red-state political fallout — the emerging fracture among Senate Republicans, including Sen. John Cornyn, over Medicaid cuts affecting states with massive uninsured populations
That last item matters more than it looks. Trump carried Texas by 14 points in November 2024. Republicans there are now quietly — and sometimes loudly — warning that specific policy choices are endangering the coalition.
Witkoff, Rubio, and Araghchi: Three Negotiators Trying to Close a Deal Their Own Governments Are Undermining
Steve Witkoff
Witkoff is Trump’s designated Iran whisperer — a real estate developer turned envoy who has now conducted multiple rounds of indirect Omani-brokered talks with Iranian counterparts. His value is precisely that he is not a career diplomat: he can make commitments that career State Department officials cannot, and he operates with direct access to Trump. His vulnerability is the same thing. When US forces strike Iranian-linked targets while Witkoff is trying to close a deal, he has no institutional standing to halt the military pressure. He is negotiating with one hand while the other hand is throwing punches.
Marco Rubio
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has maintained a consistently hawkish public posture on Iran — one that has not always aligned with what Witkoff is doing at the table. Rubio’s Senate career was built on hardline positions toward Tehran, Havana, and Caracas. He is not ideologically comfortable with the kind of compromise a deal will require. His presence at the cabinet meeting, alongside Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, represents the wing of the administration that views military pressure as the only language Tehran genuinely understands. That view may be sincere. It may also be a negotiating posture. From the outside, it is impossible to tell — and that ambiguity is itself destabilizing.
Abbas Araghchi
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is Tehran’s chief negotiator and a seasoned diplomat who helped construct the original 2015 JCPOA. He knows exactly what a workable deal looks like. He also knows that Khamenei holds final veto power over any agreement, and that the supreme leader has never publicly embraced the kind of enrichment compromise the US is demanding. Araghchi is in the impossible position of keeping talks alive — vital for economic relief — while being unable to commit to the one concession Washington actually needs. His public statements have been calibrated to precision: condemn the strikes loudly enough to satisfy hardliners, stay at the table long enough to keep options open.
Both Washington Hawks and Tehran Hardliners Are Lying About What a Deal Would Actually Require
Let’s be direct about something neither side wants to say in public. A deal — any deal — requires the United States to accept some form of Iranian enrichment capability on Iranian soil. Full stop. The alternative is a nuclear-armed Iran, a military strike that sets back their program by two to three years at most, or a decades-long indefinite standoff that has already failed twice. The “zero enrichment” demand is a maximalist opening position dressed up as a principle. Serious arms control experts, including those who worked on the original JCPOA, will tell you privately that demanding zero enrichment is how you guarantee no agreement.
On the Iranian side, the hardliners in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and segments of the Majlis have their own fantasy: that holding out long enough will force Washington to lift all sanctions with no meaningful constraints on Iran’s nuclear program. That is equally delusional. The sanctions regime has bipartisan support in Washington. It survived the Biden years. It will survive any future administration unless Iran offers something concrete.
The cabinet meeting exposes the domestic dimension of this same problem. Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” is stalling partly because Republican senators from states like Texas and others with large Medicaid-dependent populations cannot vote for a bill that strips coverage from millions of their constituents — regardless of what the White House demands. Democrats have their own reckoning underway, but Republicans are discovering that populist energy does not automatically translate into governing capacity when the concrete legislative tradeoffs arrive.
The critical failures on all sides:
- Washington hawks insist military pressure and zero-enrichment demands are compatible with a negotiated deal — they are not, and eight years of evidence prove it
- Tehran hardliners believe economic pain is politically manageable indefinitely — Iranian public opinion on sanctions suggests otherwise
- The Trump cabinet is trying to coordinate a foreign policy that has two contradictory operational tracks running simultaneously, and a domestic legislative track that is fracturing its own Senate majority
- European allies are demanding the US halt military pressure to give diplomacy space, while offering little concrete leverage of their own to move Tehran
Four Scenarios That Will Determine Whether This Ends in a Deal, a Breakdown, or a War
The next 60 to 90 days are the window. Either the Omani-brokered talks produce a framework agreement — imperfect, contested, but functional — or the negotiating channel collapses under the weight of continued military pressure and domestic political dysfunction on both sides.
- Scenario 1: Framework deal with face-saving enrichment compromise. Witkoff and Araghchi agree to a formula — possibly involving third-country enrichment or strict caps below weapons-grade — that lets both governments claim partial victory. Khamenei accepts it as economic necessity. Trump calls it the greatest deal in history. Hawks on both sides are furious. This is the best-case outcome and currently the least likely.
- Scenario 2: Talks collapse after next military strike. A further escalation — either US or Israeli strikes — gives Khamenei the domestic cover he needs to declare negotiations dead. Iran accelerates enrichment toward 90 percent weapons-grade. The window for diplomacy closes. This is the scenario that keeps Witkoff up at night.
- Scenario 3: Indefinite stall. Talks continue without resolution through 2026 and into 2027. Neither side can afford a full breakdown, neither can deliver a deal. Iran’s enrichment capacity grows incrementally. The US maintains sanctions. The “Big Beautiful Bill” either passes in diluted form or dies in the Senate. Trump’s second-term legacy becomes defined by what he didn’t accomplish.
- Scenario 4: Cabinet rupture reshapes Iran policy. Rubio and the hawkish faction win the internal argument, Witkoff’s negotiating channel is effectively sidelined, and the administration pivots to a posture of open-ended maximum pressure with implicit Israeli military backing. Regional war risk rises sharply. For more on this topic, see our US Political News coverage.
| Scenario | Probability | Iran Nuclear Outcome | US Political Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Framework deal with enrichment compromise | Low-Moderate | Program constrained, monitored | Domestic hawk backlash, Trump claims victory |
| Talks collapse after strike | Moderate | Accelerated enrichment, 90% threshold risk | Regional war risk, oil price shock |
| Indefinite stall | High | Slow enrichment growth, no breakthrough | 2026 midterms shaped by legislative failures |
| Cabinet rupture, Witkoff sidelined | Low-Moderate | Maximum pressure, military escalation | Deep Republican fracture over war costs |
That cabinet meeting Trump called was not a sign of control. It was a sign of pressure. When an administration governing through bilateral calls and presidential instinct suddenly needs everyone in the same room, something is not working — and the people in that room know it.
The question is not whether Iran will eventually accept constraints on its nuclear program. It will, when the economic pain becomes politically unsurvivable. The question is whether Trump’s administration can hold its own contradictions together long enough to be in the room when that moment arrives — or whether the hawks, the domestic legislative failures, and the next airstrike will have already burned the negotiating table to the ground before anyone gets the chance to sign anything.